Martin Raines

These words from the Bob Dylan song came to mind as I watched the MotoGP podium presentation in Malaysia, with all three riders having graduated from the Moto2 class; the fourth time in 2018 that this had occurred (having only once happened prior to this year, at Misano in 2015). Is the balance of power finally changing in MotoGP from the dominance of the ex-250cc riders to riders coming through from Moto2? 

Looking at the numbers of podium finishers in MotoGP by Moto2 riders for each year since 2011:

2011 – 0

2012 – 0

2013 – 17 (Marquez – 16, Bradl – 1)

2014 – 15 (Marquez – 14, Smith – 1)

2015 –  14 (Marquez – 9, Iannone – 3, Redding – 1, Smith – 1)

2016 –  21 (Marquez – 12, Iannone – 4, Vinales – 4, Redding – 1)

2017 –  23 (Marquez – 12, Vinales – 7, Zarco – 3, Folger – 1)

2018 (with one race remaining)  –  30 (Marquez – 14, Vinales – 5, Iannone – 4, Rins – 4, Zarco – 3)

These number show that since 2015 there has been a steady increase in both the number of MotoGP podium finishes by Moto2 graduates and the number of riders achieving these. Irrespective of what happens in Valencia, the number of podiums by ex-Moto2 riders will be more than 50% of those available in 2018 and five of the ten riders who have finished on the podium this year also come from this group.

So does this confirm that “The Times Are A-Changin”? Well with the retirement of Dani Pedrosa, and Alvaro Bautista going to WSBK, the honour of the 250cc GP graduates now depend on just five riders next year in MotoGP: Andrea Dovizioso, Karel Abraham, Aleix Espargaro, Valentino Rossi and Jorge Lorenzo. Predicting what will happen next year in MotoGP is not something I will try, I would rather taking something from these  word of wisdom from the Bob Dylan song:

“Come writers and critics, Who prophesize with your pen

And keep your eyes wide, The chance won’t come again

And don’t speak too soon, For the wheel’s still in spin

And there’s no tellin’ who that it’s namin’.

For the loser now will be later to win

For the times they are a-changin’.”

– It is the third time he has taken the MotoGP title at Motegi, along with 2014 and 2016.

– It is the fifth MotoGP world title for Marquez, the same number of premier-class titles as Mick Doohan. Only Giacomo Agostini with 8 and Valentino Rossi with 7 have won the premier-class title on more occasions.

– Marquez is the youngest-ever rider to win five premier-class World Championship titles, at the age of 25 years 246 days, taking the record from Valentino Rossi who was 26 years 221 days when he won his fifth successive premier-class title in 2005.

– Marquez is also be the youngest rider of all-time to reach the milestone of seven world championship titles across all classes, taking the record from Mike Hailwood who was 26 years 140 days old when he won his seventh title – the 1966 350cc world championship.

– This is his seventh world title across all classes for Marc Marquez (5 x MotoGP, 1 x Moto2, 1 x 125cc); the only Spanish rider with more world titles than Marquez is Angel Nieto who won thirteen world championship titles (7 x 125cc, 6 x 50cc).

 – This is his fifth premier-class title riding for Honda, equalling the record of Mick Doohan.

Marc Marquez arrives at Motegi with a chance of clinching the MotoGP title at the Japanese circuit for the third time, along with 2014 and 2016. 

So what does Marc Marquez need to do at Motegi to win the title? Below is a detailed list of scenarios that could see Marquez win the title this weekend:

• In the most likely scenario Marquez will need to finish ahead of Dovizioso to take the world title in Motegi.

But in more detail:

– If he finishes anywhere in the top four and in front of Dovizioso, then Marquez will be the world champion

– If he finishes 5th then Marquez will be world champion as long as Dovizioso does not finish on the podium.

– If he finishes 6th then Marquez will be world champion as long as Dovizioso does not finish in the top four.

 – If Marquez finishes in any position from 7th to 15th he will be world champion as long as Dovizioso finishes no more than two places ahead of him.

– If Marquez fails to score any points then he will be world champion if Dovizioso finishes no higher than 14th and Rossi does not win the race.

It would be the fifth MotoGP world title for Marquez, the same number of premier-class titles as Mick Doohan. Only Giacomo Agostini with 8 and Valentino Rossi with 7 have won the premier-class title on more occasions. If Marquez takes the MotoGP title in 2018 he would be the youngest-ever rider to win five premier-class World Championship titles, taking the record from Valentino Rossi.

• This is the first time Thailand has hosted a motorcycle grand prix event.

• Thailand is the first new country to hold a grand prix event since Turkey in 2005.

• Thailand is the 30th country to host a grand prix event since the world championship series began in 1949.

• The Chang International Circuit was opened in 2014 and has hosted the World Superbike Championship for the last three years.

• The Chang circuit is the 28th different venue to host a grand prix event since the four-stroke MotoGP class was introduced in 2002.

• The Thailand circuit is one of only two on this year’s schedule where Marc Marquez has not had a MotoGP victory – the other is the Red Bull Ring in Austria.

• Marc Marquez can clinch the 2018 world title by winning the races in Thailand and Japan, even if closest challenger Andrea Dovizioso finishes second on each occasion.

• Andrea Dovizioso has finished on the podium at the last four races – his longest run of successive podium finishes since moving up to the MotoGP class in 2008.

• This will be the 37th different circuit where Valentino Rossi has competed at a grand prix event.

• Jorge Lorenzo has failed to score any points in the last two races. He has never gone three successive races without scoring points during his time in the MotoGP class.

• No Yamaha rider has finished in the top three at the last four races, equalling the longest barren podium sequence for Yamaha since 2007. The last time that Yamaha went five premier-class races without a podium was in 2003.

• Last year Danilo Petrucci scored 124 points, which was the highest single season total for a Ducati rider in an Independent Team. If he finishes 10th or better in Thailand he was surpass this total with four races of the season remaining.

• Suzuki have already had five top three finishes in 2018 – their best haul of podium finishes since 2007.

• Bradley Smith is scheduled to make his 100th start in the MotoGP class in Thailand. He is just the fifth British rider in the 70-year history of motorcycle grand prix racing to reach the milestone of 100 premier-class starts, joining: Cal Crutchlow, Jeremy McWilliams, Ron Haslam and Niall Mackenzie. He is the youngest British rider to reach the milestone of 100 premier-class starts.

• This is the ninth successive year that the Aragon circuit has hosted a grand prix event.

• Aragon first hosted a grand prix event in 2010, when it became the sixth different circuit that has been used for grand prix racing in Spain. The other circuits that have been used in Spain are: Jerez, Catalunya, Jarama, Montjuich and Valencia.

• Casey Stoner won the first MotoGP race at Aragon in 2010 on a Ducati, the only victory for the Italian manufacturer at this circuit.

• Honda are the most successful manufacturer at the Aragon circuit with five MotoGP victories, with three different riders: Casey Stoner in 2011, Dani Pedrosa in 2012 and Marc Marquez in 2013, 2016 and 2017.

• Jorge Lorenzo has given Yamaha two MotoGP victories at the Aragon circuit, in 2014 and 2015.

• Spanish riders have had great success across all three GP classes at the Aragon circuit, winning seventeen of the twenty-four GP races that have taken place. The only non-Spanish riders who have had a grand prix win at the circuit are: Casey Stoner (MotoGP in 2010 & 2011), Andrea Iannone (Moto2 race in 2010), Romano Fenati (Moto3 in 2014), Miguel Oliveira (Moto3 in 2015), Sam Lowes (Moto2 in 2016) and Franco Morbidelli in Moto2 last year.

• Casey Stoner’s two victories are the only occasions that a non-Spanish rider has stood on either of the top two steps of the podium in the MotoGP class at the Aragon circuit.

• In addition to Casey Stoner’s win in 2010, the only podium finishes for Ducati riders at Aragon are; third for Nicky Hayden in 2010, third for Cal Crutchlow in 2014 and third for Jorge Lorenzo last year.

• The best result at Aragon for Suzuki is the fourth place finish achieved in 2016 by Maverick Viñales.

• Aleix Espargaro finished 6^thin Aragon last year to equal the best ever result for Aprilia in the MotoGP class.

• Only four different riders have started from pole in the MotoGP class at Aragon: Casey Stoner (2010 & 2011), Jorge Lorenzo (2012), Marc Marquez (2013, 2014. 2015. 2016) and Maverick Vinales last year.

• Aragon is one of just five circuits on the current grand prix schedule that run in an anti-clockwise direction, along with Austin, Sachsenring, Phillip Island and Valencia.

• Aragon is one of just four circuits on the current grand prix schedule where Valentino Rossi has not had a MotoGP victory, along with Austin, the Red Bull Ring in Austria and the Buriram International Circuit in Thailand that is being used for the first time this year.

• Last year in Aragon the top 15 MotoGP riders crossed the line covered by 26.082 seconds, setting a new record for the closest top 15 of all-time in the premier-class.

• The first four riders across the line in the MotoGP race in Aragon last year were all from Spain, for just the second time ever in the premier-class.

• The eight Moto2 races that have taken place at the Aragon circuit have been won by eight different riders: 2010 – Andrea Iannone, 2011 – Marc Marquez, 2012 – Pol Espargaro, 2013 – Nico Terol, 2014 – Maverick Vinales, 2015 – Tito Rabat, 2016 – Sam Lowes and 2017 – Franco Morbidelli.

• Six of the eight Moto2 races at Aragon have been won from pole, the exceptions are; Pol Espargaro in 2012 from second place on the grid and Franco Morbidelli last year from the head of the second row.

• The six Moto3 GP races that have taken place at the Aragon circuit have been won by six different riders: 2012 – Luis Salom, 2013 – Alex Rins, 2014 – Romano Fenati, 2015 – Miguel Oliveira, 2016 – Jorge Navarro and 2017 –  Joan Mir. None of these riders are still competing in the Moto3 class.

• This is the 22nd time that Misano has hosted a motorcycle grand prix event.

• The first grand prix event to take place at Misano was in 1980; the 500cc race was over 40 laps of the circuit that measured 3.448 km and ran in an anti-clockwise direction and was won by Kenny Roberts.

• The Misano circuit hosted a GP event for a total of ten occasions between the years of 1980 and 1993.

• Misano did not have a grand prix event for thirteen years following the accident that ended the career of Wayne Rainey in 1993.

• When GP racing returned to Misano in 2007, it was on a much revised 4.18 km circuit running in the opposite direction to the earlier layout.

• There have been twenty previous San Marino Grand Prix events. The first San Marino Grand Prix was held at Imola in 1981. Three different circuits have hosted the San Marino Grand Prix – Imola twice (1981 & 1983), Mugello four times (1982, 84, 91 and 93) and Misano on fourteen occasions (1985, 86, 87 and from 2007 onwards).

• Yamaha have been the most successful manufacturer in MotoGP since the grand prix series returned to Misano in 2007 with six victories, the last was with Valentino Rossi in 2014.

• Honda have had a four MotoGP wins at the Misano circuit, including the last three years.

• Ducati’s single victory at Misano was in 2007 with Casey Stoner. Since Stoner’s win in 2007 Ducati have had four more podium finishes at this circuit: Toni Elias 3^rd in 2008, Valentino Rossi 2^nd in 2012, and last year Danilo Petrucci finished 2^nd with Andrea Dovizioso 3^rd.

• Suzuki has had two podium finishes in the MotoGP era at Misano circuit, both of which came in 2007 when Chris Vermeulen finished second and John Hopkins third. Vinales’ 5^th place finish in 2016 was the best result for a Suzuki rider at Misano since Loris Capirossi finished 5^th in 2009.

• The most successful rider at Misano since racing returned to the circuit in 2007 is Marc Marquez with five victories (1 x 125cc, 2 x Moto2, 2 x MotoGP)

• Dani Pedrosa’s victory in 2010 is the last time that the MotoGP race at Misano was won by a rider starting from pole position.

• The MotoGP podium in 2015 at Misano was: Marc Marquez, Bradley Smith and Scott Redding – the first MotoGP podium where all three of the riders had graduated from the Moto2 class.

• Three Italian riders finished in the top five at Misano last year, all riding Ducati motorcycles. The last time that three Italian riders on Italian bikes finished in the top five in the premier-class was at Imola in 1972 when Giacomo Agostini on a MV Agusta won from team-mate Alberto Pagani, with Ducati rider Bruno Spaggiari completing the podium.

• The eight Moto2 races that have taken place at Misano have been won by seven different riders: 2010 – Toni Elias, 2011 & 2012 – Marc Marquez, 2013 – Pol Espargaro, 2014 – Tito Rabat, 2015 – Johann Zarco, 2016 – Lorenzo Baldassarri, 2017 – Tom Luthi. Of these riders only Baldassarri is competing in the Moto2 class in 2018.

• Five different riders have won the six Moto3 races that have taken place at Misano: 2012 – Sandro Cortese, 2013 & 2014 –Alex Rins, 2015 – Enea Bastianini, 2016 – Brad Binder, 2017 – Romano Fenati.

This is the ninth Grand Prix at Silverstone since it returned to the circuit in 2010. However, Silverstone had hosted the British round of the world championship on ten previous occasions from 1977 to 1986 and below is a brief recap of what happened in those years.

The first Grand Prix to be held at Silverstone was in 1977, when the British round of the world championship was moved from its previously traditional home of the Isle of Man TT circuit

1977 – This was the final race of the season and British hopes were high for a win in the 500cc class by a home rider, with reigning champion Barry Sheene qualifying on pole on his factory Suzuki.  However Sheene retired with mechanical problems on lap nine.  This left the door open for team-mate Steve Parrish to lead the race into the closing stages only to crash in the closing stages of the race.  Fellow Britain John Williams then moved into the lead before he also crashed out. Finally the third factory Suzuki rider, American Pat Hennen, took the victory.  Kork Ballington had a double victory in the 350cc and 250cc classes on his private Yamaha machines and in the 125cc race, Pierluigi Conforti took his only ever GP victory.

1978 – The 500cc GP ended in chaos, after rain started to fall mid-way through the race.  With no specific rules to deal with such a situation, the riders had to enter the pits to change tyres.  Barry Sheene (Suzuki) was by far the quickest rider after the tyre change but suffered with a pit stop that took over 7 minutes.  By contrast the eventual winner Kenny Roberts (Yamaha) was in the pits for less than 3 minutes.  Splitting these two riders on the podium was Britain’s Steve Manship, who had gambled on starting the race with intermediate tyres.  Kork Ballington (Kawasaki) won the 350cc race from British riders Tom Herron and Mick Grant.  Toni Mang scored the first of his record 33 victories in the 250cc class, with Herron once again finishing second.  Angel Nieto won the 125cc race riding a Minarelli from British rider Clive Horton.

1979 – The two top riders of the day, Barry Sheene and Kenny Roberts, exchanged the lead throughout the 500cc race.  Roberts eventually took the win by 0.03 seconds in one of the closest finishes of all-time.  In the 250cc race Morbidelli factory rider Graziano Rossi (Valentino’s father) fell on the final lap of the race when holding a two second lead.  Kork Ballington (Kawasaki) took advantage of Rossi’s misfortune to win the race and then did the double by winning the 350cc race.  Angel Nieto repeated his 125cc victory of the previous year.

1980 – After a great battle early in the 500cc race, Randy Mamola (Suzuki) pulled clear of fellow American Kenny Roberts to win the race with Marco Lucchinelli finishing third and Graziano Rossi finishing fourth.  Toni Mang (Kawasaki) won the 350cc race and Kork Ballington (Kawasaki) was once again victorious in the 250cc class.  In the 125cc class Loris Reggiani (Minarelli) took his first ever Grand Prix win.

1981 – The edge was taken of this race as early as the third lap when race leader and pole position man Graeme Crosby crashed and took out Barry Sheene and forced championship leader Marco Lucchinelli into the catch fencing.  Dutchman Jack Middelburg (Suzuki) went on to win the race from Randy Mamola and Kenny Roberts.  This was the last time that a premier-class GP race was won by a true privateer rider.  Toni Mang (Kawasaki) won both the 350cc and 250cc race.  The home crowd were given something to cheer with Keith Huewen finishing second in the 350cc race.  Angel Nieto (Minarelli) won in the 125cc class at Silverstone for the third time.

1982 –   Barry Sheene had a huge crash in practice that eliminated him from the 500cc race and Kenny Roberts’ race was short lived with a crash at the first corner.  With his two main challengers out of the race, Franco Uncini (Suzuki) cruised to a comfortable victory which effectively sealed the world title.  Jean-Francois Balde (Kawasaki) won a tremendous 350cc race and Martin Wimmer (Yamaha) won the 250cc race from pole having crashed out of the earlier 350cc race which he also started from pole.  Angel Nieto won the 125cc race once again – this time riding a Garelli.

1983 – The 500cc race was run in two parts, after the race had been stopped due to a big crash in which Norman Brown and Peter Huber lost their lives.  Kenny Roberts took overall victory from great rival Freddie Spencer with Randy Mamola making it an all USA podium.  There was an historic win in the 250cc race with Jacque Bolle giving Pernod their one and only GP victory.  Angel Nieto won the 125cc race at Silverstone for the fifth time.

1984 – Riding as a replacement for the injured Freddie Spencer, Randy Mamola won first time out on the V-four Honda from fellow American Eddie Lawson and British rider Ron Haslam.  Christian Sarron (Yamaha) won the 250cc race on the way to taking the world title and Angel Nieto won the 125cc race and in doing so clinched his 13^th and last world title.

1985 – In horrendously wet conditions, Freddie Spencer (Honda) won the 500cc race after finishing fourth in the earlier 250cc race to clinch the world championship title.  British rider Alan Carter had led the 250cc race until mid distance before crashing and re-starting to finish seventh.  Toni Mang (Honda) took the 250cc race victory from Reinhold Roth and Manfred Herweh in an all German podium.  Austrian rider August Auinger (Monnet) won the 125cc race.

1986 – As in the previous year, the event was held in terrible wet weather.  Wayne Gardner (Honda) had a start to finish win in the main race after starting from pole position.  Winner of the 250cc race was Dominique Sarron (Honda) – brother of the winner of the race in 1984.  Alan Carter crashed out of the 250cc race once again; this time on the last lap while challenging for the lead.  August Auinger (Bartol) repeated his 125cc win of the previous year.  History was made in the 80cc race held in the dry weather on Saturday, when Ian McConnachie (Krauser) became the first British rider to win a Grand Prix race for solo motorcycles around the Silverstone circuit.